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    November 13

    股市隨筆

            今天共有兩篇網誌,標題是「股市隨筆」及「小故事大道理 ( 98 )」。
     
            昨天恒指跌229點,上證指數跌2點。
     
            在奧巴馬總統訪華前夕,中國政府發表了經濟政策展望報告。外電解讀為改變人民幣緊盯美元的政策,將恢復緩慢升值的政策,人民幣有調控的慢慢升值,直至開放人民幣的自由兌換,是一個已確定的重要國家政策,也符合中國的重大利益,現在更有理由投資在中國資產上,我們最容易做到的就是投資在中國的優質股票上。
     
            統計數字有時想想是很有趣的。例如雷曼在去年十月爆煲,去年十一月,十二月出口大跌,今年每個月宣佈的數字都很難看,但是到今年十二月宣佈的出口數字就會顯得特別漂亮。
     
            中國的外匯結餘十月份上升240億美元,雖然出口大跌,但進口貨價,特別是原材料價格也大跌,所以順差依然巨大,每月二、三百億美元的外匯順差對中國來說也不好,也是不能持續的,所以人民幣升值看起來是必要的,香港會在這過程中受惠。

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